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Prediction for CME (2024-06-28T00:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-06-28T00:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31741/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo seen to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, and just to the SE in STEREO COR2A. The source for this CME is not entirely certain, but appears to originate from the cluster of ARs 3723, 3727, 3728, centered roughly around S20E25 (as such, this is used as the CME source coordinates). Some small C-class flaring is observed here as early as 2024-06-27T19:45Z, more noticeable closer to 2024-06-27T21:24Z possibly due to post-eruptive loops observed across SDO AIA 94/131/171/193. However, more confidence in this area is given via a good triangulation of the CME front between SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO COR2A in swpc_cat when measuring. No clear arrival signature in solar wind found for this event.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-01T17:13Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2024 Jun 29 1231 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40629
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Jun 2024, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
....
Coronal mass ejections: A faint partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 00:48 UTC on June 28, directed towards the southeast from Earth's perspective. This CME is likely associated with flaring near NOAA AR 3730. Given the source's location close to the disk center, an impact at Earth is possible from late on July 1st. This ICME will likely interact with the one from June 27 on its way to Earth, although the prediction of its arrival remains with low confidence.
No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Lead Time: 55.67 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-06-29T09:33Z

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